TM-203: Patterns Archive
Auto-updated on every full pillar re-run. History preserved — new run appended.
Last updated: 2026-10-27 (Run 2 — v2 framework applied, partial site coverage noted)
Output Levels per Pattern (Design v2)
Each pattern entry must now include:
1. Chain summary — aggregate trend line (run-over-run comparison)
2. Item cluster — top 10-20 specific UPCs or UPC+site pairs driving this pattern, named and ranked by retail value
3. Item-store pairs surface in Action (Transfer Options) — not duplicated here
Item cluster format per UPC:
`
UPC [code] [name] | Sites: [count] | OH value: $[X] | Status: [PERSISTING / STRENGTHENING / WEAKENING]
`
Pattern: Massive Chain-Wide Dead Stock Accumulation
First seen: 2026-10-26
Last confirmed: 2026-10-27
Status: PERSISTING — NOTE: Oct 27 run covers 27/36 sites (9 sites missing, see CQ-010). Direct value comparison not valid across runs.
Description: The chain is carrying over $8.5M in dead stock across 319,767 site-UPC rows (27 sites). Structurally Dead product dominates at 74% of rows. Chain-wide UPCs (9+ stores) account for $4.1M — assortment-level failures remain the largest component. Star Wars ornament series (Keepsake line) represents the highest-value cluster: $37K for Death Star Topper alone across 22 sites.
Data:
2026-10-26: 405,966 rows | $10,830,451 | 36 sites
Structurally Dead: 304,263 rows / $8,155,073
Never Sold — Core: 70,510 rows / $2,037,879
Seasonally Overdue Dead: 26,236 rows / $494,280
Never Sold — Seasonal: 4,957 rows / $143,219
Chain-wide: $6,153,968
2026-10-27: 319,767 rows | $8,510,598 | 27 sites (PARTIAL — 9 sites missing)
Structurally Dead: 237,842 rows / $6,403,901
Never Sold — Core: 57,830 rows / $1,609,954
Seasonally Overdue Dead: 20,291 rows / $389,010
Never Sold — Seasonal: 3,804 rows / $107,733
Chain-wide: 125,189 rows / $4,144,191
365d+ write-off candidates: 150,760 rows / $3,792,584
Item cluster (Top 10 UPCs by OH value, Oct 27):
ORN DEATH STAR TTOPPER SWARS | 763795787722 | 22 sites | $37,125 | $134.99 each | Structurally Dead
ORN FESTIVE SNOMAN | 763795820511 | 25 sites | $31,438 | $15.99 each | Structurally Dead
DB BEAD/CHARM | 766150261394 | 7 sites | $27,715 | $6.99 each | Structurally Dead
CARD EVRYDAY SHOEBOX | 720473686029 | 10 sites | $16,649 | $2.99 each | Structurally Dead
ORN C 3PO N R2 D2 SWARS | 763795786039 | 22 sites | $14,040 | $39.99 each | Structurally Dead
RED CROSSBODY BAG W/DETAIL | 400894148572 | 16 sites | $12,946 | $14.99 each | Structurally Dead
ORN LT NYOTA UHURA STAR TREK | 763795785988 | 24 sites | $12,670 | $34.99 each | Structurally Dead
WT MY GUY FIGURINE | 638713580313 | 19 sites | $12,432 | $56.00 each | Structurally Dead
ORN LUKE SKYWALKER SWARS | 763795786015 | 19 sites | $11,760 | $39.99 each | Structurally Dead
VIRGINIA BRACELET | 848149040293 | 20 sites | $11,681 | $24.95 each | Structurally Dead
Pattern: Critical Stockout Pressure at Specific Sites
First seen: 2026-10-26
Last confirmed: 2026-10-27
Status: PERSISTING
Description: Several high-traffic sites carry 2,000+ CRITICAL stockout items — indicating deep systemic inventory gaps, not isolated SKU issues. Sites 171 (Burke Town Plaza), 237 (Monticello Williamsburg), and 170 (Bradlee) each have 2,000+ critical items.
Data:
2026-10-26: 67,156 SR1+SR2 stockout items | 2,188 already stocked out | 25,128 quick sellouts (22,744 CRITICAL)
Site 171 Burke Town Plaza: 2,101 critical
Site 237 Monticello Williamsburg: 2,071 critical
Site 170 Bradlee Shopping Center: 2,021 critical
Site 165 Virginia Gateway: 1,960 critical
Site 1789 Greenbrier Chesapeake: 1,957 critical
Pattern: Dual-Role Sites (Simultaneously Donor and Recipient)
First seen: 2026-10-26
Last confirmed: 2026-10-26
Status: BASELINE
Description: 8 sites appear as both significant donors and significant recipients in the Transfer Options output. This means they have excess of some SKUs and shortages of others simultaneously — a symptom of assortment imbalance at the item level, not an overall inventory surplus or deficit. Sites 243, 241, 170, 1452 are the most pronounced.
Data:
2026-10-26:
Site 243 Village Marketplace: donor=1,198, recipient=2,297
Site 241 Cosners Corner: donor=1,404, recipient=2,054
Site 170 Bradlee Shopping Center: donor=1,290, recipient=1,979
Site 1452 Oakton Shopping Center: donor=1,136, recipient=2,110
Site 171 Burke Town Plaza: donor=1,028, recipient=1,955
Pattern: 365d+ Write-Off Candidates Dominate Dead Stock
First seen: 2026-10-26
Last confirmed: 2026-10-26
Status: BASELINE
Description: The oldest staleness bucket (365d+) holds 188,136 rows — 46% of all dead stock rows. Product sitting this long is past typical markdown windows and approaching write-off territory. Combined with the 181-365d entrenched bucket (85,174 rows), over 67% of dead stock is severely aged.
Data:
2026-10-26:
365d+ (Write-off Candidates): 188,136 rows
181-365d (Entrenched): 85,174 rows
Never Sold: 75,467 rows
121-180d (Aging Dead): 42,732 rows
91-120d (Recently Dead): 14,457 rows
Pattern: Stockout Risk Concentrated in FAST/CRITICAL Tier
First seen: 2026-10-26
Last confirmed: 2026-10-26
Status: BASELINE
Description: Of 25,128 quick sellout items, 22,744 are CRITICAL risk tier. FAST sellout tier (most urgent) + CRITICAL = 12,143 items. These items are selling fast and are close to or at zero inventory — highest risk of lost sales during the peak holiday season (October).
Data:
2026-10-26:
CRITICAL + FAST sellout: 12,143 items
CRITICAL + MODERATE sellout: 10,601 items
HIGH risk tiers: 1,621 items